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Sport Nation
Punter's guide to second round of Stanley Cup Playoffs
Logan Swinkels • May 6th, 2025 10:32 am
Photo: NHL
The NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs have arrived at the next stage after the opening round ended in the most dramatic way possible - a Game 7 that went to double-overtime to determine the winner.
Considered one of the hardest trophies to win in all of sports, it’s one that’s eluded a Canadian-based franchise since the Montreal Canadiens hoisted it in 1993. With eight teams eliminated in the last round, three Canadian teams remain – but are any of them worth backing?
With ice hockey being a niche sport in New Zealand, I thought it was worth pooling together my decades of watching playoff hockey to help Sport Nation listeners find some value in their betcha bets, starting with Game 1 of the Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers.
Check back as this guide is updated with the other series in play.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers
Toronto: 2.50 / Florida: 1.53
The Florida Panthers are favoured here as the defending Stanley Cup champions, who made relative short work of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, winning 4-1. They also have had the better of their next opponent during the regular season, beating the Maple Leafs 3-1.
Toronto have historically been known as chokers in the playoffs, which pains me to say as a fan who bleeds blue and white.
Last week, that tendency to crumble under pressure almost reared its ugly head again against the Ottawa Senators, after being 3-0 up in the series it took six games to knock out their provincial rival, kissing goodbye any chance of resting battered bodies before facing Florida.
The Panthers can be gritty and rack up penalties, allowing the Leaf’s explosive powerplay to get into the game. They’re currently operating at a 35.3% scoring rate - third best in the playoffs (an adequate powerplay typically runs at 20%).
But while the Senators failed to stop them, Florida’s defence can provide resistance while down a player (or two) with the playoff’s second-best penalty kill unit, nullifying 88.9% of penalties called against them.
I expect this one to be tight, with overtimes playing a factor - Leafs win in 6, or Panthers in 7 if the series stretches that far.
Players to pick for multis
Anytime Goal Scorer:
William Nylander (2.35), John Tavares (2.70) and Matthew Knies (3.40) are tied for first with three goals apiece. Each contributes on the powerplay, along with captain Auston Matthews (1.80) who has two goals. Knies is really tempting at that price, as he continues to prove to be a playoff performer.
William Nylander (2.35), John Tavares (2.70) and Matthew Knies (3.40) are tied for first with three goals apiece. Each contributes on the powerplay, along with captain Auston Matthews (1.80) who has two goals. Knies is really tempting at that price, as he continues to prove to be a playoff performer.
Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk (2.65) is an absolute menace who isn’t afraid to get amongst the rough stuff, while showing he’s got the scoring touch with three goals in round 1. The threat of Sam Reinhart (2.70) and Carter Verhaeghe (2.85) on the top powerplay line, and Sam Bennett (3.40) on the secondary unit are also strong contenders.
Player Points Markets:
Anytime goal scorer is a classic option for a multi, but I’ve been having success these playoffs with the player points markets when combining across other games and/or sports.
Anytime goal scorer is a classic option for a multi, but I’ve been having success these playoffs with the player points markets when combining across other games and/or sports.
One key option is Nylander who leads Toronto with nine points at an average of 1.5 per game. With the market set to 0.5 for the over/under – at his current pace - it would be a feat to keep him off the scoresheet. He’s currently 1.50 for the over, 2.45 for the under.
Reinhart is in a similar position as the Panthers’ leading points scorer. With 6 points in 5 games, the market is nearly identical to Nylander for the over/under.
Toronto & Florida to draw (3-way match betting) – 3.75
Total goals under 5.5 – 1.88
Matthew Knies anytime goal scorer – 3.35
TOTAL STAKE = 28.83
Total goals under 5.5 – 1.88
Matthew Knies anytime goal scorer – 3.35
TOTAL STAKE = 28.83
Game 1 puck drops Wednesday 11am - come back tomorrow for more info.
Game 1 puck drops Wednesday 1.30pm - come back tomorrow for more info.
Game 1 puck drops Thursday 1.30pm - more info to come.
Across the eight matchups in the first round, I was able to predict seven of them. The one that stopped my eight-leg multi short was the Edmonton Oilers, who came back from 2-0 down to knock out the LA Kings for the fourth straight post-season.
Here's how I see the second round going - the only favourite I'm backing are the Dallas Stars, otherwise I foresee a round of upsets with Toronto ending the defending champions' run, Washington's crusade to get Alex Ovechkin one more ring continuing, and Edmonton fighting to prove they deserve to be back in the Stanley Cup Finals after losing in seven games in 2024.
Toronto to beat Florida – 2.50
Washington to beat Carolina – 2.25
Edmonton to beat Vegas – 2.10
Dallas to beat Winnipeg – 1.55
TOTAL STAKE = 18.31
Washington to beat Carolina – 2.25
Edmonton to beat Vegas – 2.10
Dallas to beat Winnipeg – 1.55
TOTAL STAKE = 18.31
All betcha odds are current at the time of publishing - R18, please gamble responsibly.
