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📻 IMPORTANT AUCKLAND UPDATE 📻
Melbourne Cup weather: How rain impacts Flemington
SEN • October 31st, 2025 3:10 pm
Punters, brace yourself for a very wet Melbourne Cup day!
The forecast in Melbourne is not pretty and there promises to be a fair bit of rain around in the lead-up to Tuesday.
Channel 10 weather guru Josh Holt says he cannot see it being a Good track at Flemington on Tuesday with a Monday night downpour likely to dampen Day 2 of the Cup Carnival.
Holt is telling us to do our form for a Soft or Heavy track given the rain will start on Friday afternoon or evening. There could be as much as 30mm fall from Monday night into Tuesday.
Derby Day on Saturday should be ok but it’ll get a bit sloppier thereafter.
Saturday ok for Derby Day
“We are expecting a little bit of patchy rain to develop later tonight,” Holt, who is a massive and lifelong racing fan, told Gareth Hall on SENTrack & RSN’s Giddy Up.
“I’m expecting only 1 to 3mm at most. At the moment we’re on a Good 4 so I don’t think that will impact the track tomorrow.
“Expect a cloudy day of 21 degrees and we should have a good track for racing.
Sunday into Monday weather
“We’re expecting a sunny morning on Sunday and a shower or two much later in the day, but not too much rain.
“Then there’s cold front that will move into western Victoria and into Bass Strait. So as that happens on Monday we will begin to see some showers.
“Those showers will develop most likely in the afternoon and evening on the official forecast. I think it will be later than that, closer to midnight (Monday night).
“Those showers will begin to ramp up as that frontal system approaches. There’s an upper level system coming across with the front - that will cause the pressure to drop at the surface and a Bass Strait low will form up."
Tuesday rain on Cup Day
“That will push up a lot of moisture going into Tuesday. We’re expecting showers Melbourne Cup day.
“My prediction at the moment - anywhere from about midnight on Monday into Melbourne Cup Day on Tuesday and towards the race - it’ll be around 20 to 30mm.
“So the rain will start midnight Monday and continue onwards into Cup Day. It does look like we’ll get wet weather during the meeting.
“I can’t see a scenario where we’ll be on a Good track for Cup Day. It will be at least a Soft track and there is a chance it could go into that Heavy range.
“It will be cool as well, about 16 degrees, so take the jacket.”
Weather leading into Oaks and Stakes Days
“Wednesday we’ve got a shower or two, 17 degrees.
“They begin to back off on Thursday for Oaks Day where it will be 19 degrees.
“There’s no official forecast for next Friday and Saturday yet, but I don’t think we’re expecting much for Friday. A possible shower and likewise for Saturday. But it’s essentially dry.
“Most of the weather comes on the first Tuesday in November.”
Weather guru’s tips
Despite the weather, Holt had a tip or two for good measure - in the Derby and Melbourne Cup.
Derby tip: “The more and more I look at the Derby I like Options.
“If Observer comes out and blows them away then good on him, but I can’t back him at the price.
“I saw Options at around $13-$14 and I said yes please. Each-way all day.”
Cup tip: “As we get closer to the Cup, I’m really taking a liking towards Presage Nocturne.
“Especially with the weather. He looks good and I liked his run in the Caulfield Cup.”
Holt says the weather in Sydney is unlikely to negatively impact the Golden Eagle meeting.
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