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Final in August: The fallout of Hawthorn and Collingwood’s season-defining clash
Sam Edmund • August 7th, 2025 3:00 pm
There’s Christmas in July and now there’s an AFL final in August.
Amid all the speculation surrounding changes to competition structure, season length and fixturing in the coming years, 2025 has given us a final a month early.
Last week we had a moan about the lopsided nature of Thursday night games (the average margin in the last eight matches is 51 points), but surely that’s about to change.
Put simply, this Thursday night could not be better scripted. The stakes could not be any higher and the consequences could not be any bigger.
Any ladder predictor boffin will tell you that Hawthorn losing to Collingwood puts the Hawks’ finals hopes in potentially irretrievable jeopardy.
A GWS win over North Melbourne and a Western Bulldogs win over Melbourne three days later would thrust Hawthorn out of the eight.
And Collingwood losing to Hawthorn, with other results going as expected, would have the Pies clinging to the top four on percentage.
The Hawks have Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane (Gabba) in the run home and most likely need to win two of them to be chance of playing finals.
The Bulldogs have Melbourne, West Coast and Fremantle and need to win them all.
GWS have North Melbourne (Manuka), Gold Coast (People First Stadium) and St Kilda (Engie Stadium) and can afford to drop one, Fremantle’s tricky finish demands they win two from Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane (Optus Stadium) and Western Bulldogs (Marvel) and if Gold Coast beats all of Carlton (Marvel Stadium), GWS (People First Stadium), Essendon (People First Stadium) and Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), the Suns’ first maiden finals appearance will start in the top four.
What we know…
Collingwood sat two-and-a-half games clear on top of the AFL ladder four weeks ago.
The Pies have since lost three of their last four.
The Pies have since lost three of their last four.
Oh, sorry, as Craig McRae said after the loss to Brisbane, they’ve won one of their past two.
“It’s feedback … it’s fair. I just have a positive lens. We’ve won one of our last two,” McRae said after the 27-point loss to Brisbane.
What we need to know…
What’s going on? Are these terminal issues? Or reminiscent of late 2023 when a premiership was just down the road?
A six-point loss to Gold Coast in Queensland, one-point loss to Fremantle at the MCG and the loss to the Lions at the MCG surround a victory over lowly Richmond.
The midfield lacks dynamism and the defence looks shaky.
Yes, it’s a system defence, but key forwards have had their way with the Pies in the last few weeks. Logan Morris’ six goals came after Patrick Voss’ six in Round 19.
A lot is being put on 35-year-old Jeremy Howe and even omitted journeyman Billy Frampton.
Dan Houston hasn’t carried his form over from Port Adelaide, and Jamie Elliott and Steele Sidebottom have slowed after periods of white-hot form earlier in the season.
The upside potentially sits with the returning Jordan De Goey and Bobby Hill, while Beau McCreery will soon be back from a hamstring.
Read the full column in your Round 22 edition of the AFL Record, available at all games for $6.
Can’t make it the game? Visit aflrecord.com.au to grab a copy – print or digital.
