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Deep Dive Golf: Three betting picks for The Masters
David Bieleski • April 10th, 2025 10:01 am
Photo: Matthew Harris
What is it about The Masters that makes this tournament so very special?
Is it the expertly designed, timeless Augusta National Golf Club which continues to challenge the world’s best? Or the legacy, where winning here places you firmly amongst the legends of golf history? Or the blooming azaleas, the roars on Sunday, and the carefully manicured grass?
Jim Nantz, as he so often does, perhaps got it right earlier this week:
“When you have the Masters, there’s never a discussion about money, it’s about a jacket. It’s about a coat that you win. I couldn’t even tell you what first place pays, and I don’t care. Nor do the players.
“You know what it is? It’s immortality in golf. You achieve it, man, you have found a place in history. It’s permanence. It’s forever."
Deep Dive Golf’s Tipping Record at The Masters
Historically, this is one of the more predictable events on the PGA Tour and, certainly, the easiest of the majors to get correct.
The field averages between just 90-100 players. You can then further strike a line through the amateurs and aging past champions, who realistically have little chance of success.
I've correctly tipped Danny Willett at 100/1, Sergio Garcia at 50/1, Tiger Woods at 20/1, and Hideki Matsuyama at 50/1 in The Masters. Essentially, that is every winner over the last 9 years that hasn't been in the top 3 betting favourites, outside Patrick Reed in 2018.
Who will climb atop the leaderboard at August National in 2025? | Photo: Matthew Harris
Augusta National Course History
This is the only major played at the same venue every year. Augusta National will host the 89th edition of The Masters this year. A significant part in the predictability of this tournament comes down to the golf course itself.
It is well documented Augusta National has the "stickiest" course history of any event on the planet. That means, if you have played well here previously, you are far more likely to do so again.
The real question is: why? The answer, for me, is the beguiling genius of the greens.
Augusta National features an average green size well above average at 6,486 sq ft. However, the effective green size of each hole is much, much smaller than that.
The greens are incredibly sloped and undulating, so much so I’m told you must see them in person to truly comprehend their severity. Add in the fact that the greens are extremely fast, rolling at 15 or higher on the stimpmeter (a device used to measure green speeds).
Pin positions and course management is everything at Augusta National.
Knowing where on the green you can hit, which slope will feed your ball to the hole, and which will repel the ball off the green is imperative. Hit the wrong slope, and you have zero chance of stopping the ball. More than likely, you aren't keeping it on the green, or it will end up leaving you an extremely long putt with multiple breaks.
If you ever wonder why just one rookie has won The Masters since the first two editions of the tournament and the same players keep showing up on the leaderboard every year, this is why.
Because, if you are one of the select few that ever manages to unlock the secrets of these greens, that knowledge and experience is essential to finding success on this course.
It is perhaps no surprise then that Scottie Scheffler is contending for his 3rd green jacket in 4 years this week. He excels in his course management, along with being the best ball-striker since Tiger Woods. This deadly combination means he can navigate his way around the golf course and execute the elite approach shots when he needs to.
Tiger Woods during practice at US Masters | Photo: Matthew Harris
Key Skills to Win at Augusta National
Stokes Gained: Approach
With the small effective shot area of these sloping greens, there are often shots you simply need to step up and hit. You’ll see a higher dispersion of SG: APP shots from 150+ yards. 67% of approach shots will be with a mid to long iron.
Rarely will you have a flat lie at Augusta National. This piece of land is severely undulated with large elevation changes. Often, you will end with some form of variation to your stance with the ball either above or below your feet. There is no stock shot at Augusta National.
Your ability to execute a precise approach shot to an exact point on the green, with the ball on a slant, under all the pressures of this great tournament, is paramount to winning The Masters.
Driving Distance
Historically, driving distance has been a real asset here.
As a 7,555 yard par-72, it is pound for pound the 2nd longest course we have seen this season after only Torrey Pines. The average yardage for par 4s and par 5s is in the top 5 longest each year.
Additionally, it has often been the case that players who produce a draw can find success given the shape of many important holes favour that path.
Scrambling
Finally, displaying elite acumen with your chipping and bunker play is strongly correlated to success at The Masters.
Augusta National consistently rates either 1st or 2nd for the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Around The Green (SG: ATG) each season. The tightly mown areas, combined with the severely sloping greens, require incredible vision and creativity to navigate.
This is perhaps best demonstrated by Jordan Spieth. Aside from his 2015 Masters victory, he was runner-up in 2014 and 2016, 3rd in 2018 and 2021, and 4th in 2023.
Spieth ranks 6th in the field SG: ATG over all time. He has incredible creativity when chipping, and his knowledge around these greens plays no small part in his continual ability to put himself in contention at The Masters.
Rory McIlroy at Augusta National | Photo: Matthew Harris
Correlated Courses to Augusta National
For me, there are four golf courses which provide you with essential guidance towards Augusta National:
- Plantation Course at Kapalua – The Sentry
- Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational
- Narashino Country Club – ZOZO Championship
- Emirates Golf Club – Dubai Desert Classic
Plantation Course at Kapalua
The course is heavily undulated with multiple elevation changes like Augusta National. On paper, they are a very similar yardage as well with Augusta National stretching to 7,555 yards vs 7,596 yards at Plantation.
Winners who have completed the Plantation Course-Masters double are Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods.
Riviera Country Club
Riviera Country Club is the host course of the Genesis Invitational. Note that, due to the horrific LA wildfires decimating the Pacific Palisades area, the 2025 Genesis Invitational was moved to Torrey Pines.
7 of the past 10 tournaments at Riviera Country Club have featured a champion who also donned the green jacket.
Players to complete the double include Adam Scott, Mike Weir, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Nick Faldo, Craig Stadler, Tom Watson, Arnold Palmer, Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, and Byron Nelson.
More recently, 2021 Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama won the last tournament at Riviera in 2024. He defeated perennial Masters contender Will Zalatoris in 2nd.
Then there is Jon Rahm. Along with winning The 2023 Sentry, he also won at Riviera in 2023 enroute to winning The Masters that same year.
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Narashino features undulating fairways, elevation changes, and sloping greens. Even visually, the bunkers appear at least Masters-esque.
Tiger Woods won the inaugural ZOZO Championship in 2019 while defeating Hideki Matsuyama in 2nd, when earlier that year he completed his "return to glory" at The Masters. Hideki would then complete the same feat, winning the 2021 Masters before doubling at the ZOZO Championship later that year.
Two-time Masters champion Seve Ballesteros won the 1977 Japan Open Golf Championship at Narashino before his first Masters win in 1980. And Gary Player won the 1972 Japan Airlines Open here, two years before the second of his three Masters titles.
Emirates Golf Club
The Dubai Desert Classic attracts one of the strongest fields on the DP World Tour. The golf course is long and it is imperative that you are strong off the tee and have excellent ball-striking, both hallmarks of Augusta National.
Notably, both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won the Dubai Desert Classic just months before they went on to win The Masters in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
Others completing the double include Mark O'Meara, Tiger Woods, José Maria Olazábal, Seve Ballesteros, and Fred Couples.
Justin Thomas | Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire
2025 Masters Betting Tips: Three For Free
Justin Thomas: Win 22/1, DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater Top 20 $2.75
Five months ago, Justin Thomas was given 45/1 to win the Masters on my weekly radio segment with Sport Nation's Mornings with Ian Smith (10am every Wednesday).
Five months ago, Justin Thomas was given 45/1 to win the Masters on my weekly radio segment with Sport Nation's Mornings with Ian Smith (10am every Wednesday).
Feather in my own cap here, but he is now just half those odds, and I love his chances to don the green jacket this week.
Yes, Thomas hasn't won a golf tournament since 2022. However, that did come in a major championship to at least earn some extra credit. Plus, it is widely accepted that 2023 and 2024 were a far departure from the usual ball-striking prowess and hot putter we know he can produce.
Thomas now rates 2nd for SG: APP over the past 6 months. On the topic of his putter, JT is putting at an average of +0.44 SG: Putt per round in 2025.
His prior best putting year was 2017, when gaining +0.38 SG: Putt per round. He won 5 tournaments that year, including his first PGA Championship.
Over at the TAB, he is this week’s DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater with a Justin Thomas Top 20 boosted from $1.75 to $2.75.
Collin Morikawa: Win 15/1, Top 10 $2.38
With a superb Masters record already, and great performances on comp courses, Morikawa has certainly been trending to a win at Augusta National.
With a superb Masters record already, and great performances on comp courses, Morikawa has certainly been trending to a win at Augusta National.
Morikawa has finished 18-5-10-3 in the last four Masters.
The Sentry, Morikawa was very unlucky there once again to begin 2025. 32-under would have previously beaten the PGA Tour record for low 72-hole score. Except Hideki Matsuayama shot a 35-under in the same week. His record at the Plantation course reads 7-7-5-2-5-2.
Morikawa is also a winner at Narashino in 2023, has finished 2-6-19 in his previous three appearances at Riviera Country Club, and is already a two-time major champion. Win here, and he would become the latest needing just one more win to complete the career Grand Slam.
Robert MacIntyre: Win 33/1, Top 20 $2.38
Bobby Mac found an immediate liking for Augusta National, a rarity for most golfers. He was an impressive 12th on his Masters debut, followed by a 23rd the following year.
Bobby Mac found an immediate liking for Augusta National, a rarity for most golfers. He was an impressive 12th on his Masters debut, followed by a 23rd the following year.
Since then, I believe MacIntyre's game has elevated to a level that we currently aren't giving him enough credit for.
2024 was a breakthrough year for Robert MacIntyre. He won the RBC Canadian Open for his debut PGA Tour victory, holding off Rory McIlroy amongst others. He then avenged a heart-breaking runner-up defeat to Rory in the 2023 Scottish Open, winning his national open the very next year in dramatic fashion.
Then, recently at The Players Championship, he obtained a Top 10 finish at TPC Sawgrass where he had missed the cut in his two prior appearances. MacIntyre has clearly demonstrated he can perform in the big moments, such as when going undefeated with a record of 2-0-1 in his debut Ryder Cup appearance in 2023.
In his comp course appearances, MacIntyre finished 15th at Riviera and 15th at the Plantation Course in his sole look at each. At the Dubai Desert Classic, he finished 8th on debut followed by a 3rd in 2021, and 17th earlier this year.
Along with his prior performances at The Masters, MacIntyre has also shown up in other major championships. He finished 8th in last year's PGA Championship, where he previously held a record of 66-49-77-MC.
MacIntyre finished 6th at the 2019 Open Championship in his first ever major championship appearance at this year's Open Championship host, Royal Portrush. He then finished 8th at his next Open Championship appearance in 2021.
Robert MacIntyre demonstrates clear value with all the credentials necessary to be a genuine dark horse.
All TAB odds are current at the time of publishing - R18, please gamble responsibly.
For more Deep Dive Golf coverage of the 2025 Masters, check out the in-depth preview, the ultimate player-by-player guide, plus the full betting card.
