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Setting the record straight (sets): The stats surrounding Finals Week 2
Luke Mathews • September 10th, 2025 4:26 pm
It’s no secret that after a big week of finals footy, the pressure ramps up on the two losing Qualifying Finalists.
This year those clubs are Adelaide and Brisbane.
While two sides in Collingwood and Geelong are just one win away from a Grand Final, two teams are left to fight tooth and nail to keep their season alive.
At the same time, another two teams, Hawthorn and Gold Coast, have a sting in their tail after winning an Elimination Final and will be looking to hand their Semi-Final opponents a straight sets exit.
After losing to the Magpies on Thursday night, Kane Cornes said Adelaide’s midfield “doesn’t look great” especially without Izak Rankine.
David King called on some of Brisbane’s superstars like Charlie Cameron and the Ashcroft brothers to lift after disappointing performances in their loss to the Cats.
Recent history would suggest that the odds are still in the favour of the two top four sides, however, there has been a shift in the last decade.
13 teams have exited in straight sets since the AFL introduced the final eight system in 2000.
Before 2014, only two teams went out in straight sets while there have been eight teams lose two finals in a row since the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2016.
Before 2014, only two teams went out in straight sets while there have been eight teams lose two finals in a row since the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2016.
Port Adelaide was the first team to lose a Qualifying Final and a Semi-Final in the same year in 2001 while West Coast did the same in 2007 after losing in extra-time to Collingwood.
2014 would be the next time a team would experience a straight sets exit with Fremantle and Geelong both being knocked out in a Semi-Final despite finishing in the top four.
Sydney went down to North Melbourne in 2015 in the Semi-Final, however were missing superstars Lance Franklin and Luke Parker, plus Kieren Jack and Sam Reid for the do-or-die final.
The Western Bulldogs took full advantage of the pre-finals bye and regained Easton Wood, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae and Jordan Roughead which helped knock out Hawthorn on the way to a dramatic drought-breaking flag.
The Hawks suffered the straight-sets fate just two years later in 2018 when an emotion-charged Melbourne handed them a 33-point defeat in the Semi-Final after a Qualifying Final loss to Richmond.
A young and inexperienced Brisbane succumbed to back-to-back finals defeats in 2019 after going down in a nail-biter to GWS at the Gabba.
There was still more pain to come in September for Chris Fagan’s men with the Lions losing to the Bulldogs by just one point.
However, Brissie did learn their lessons in 2022 and sent Melbourne packing in straight sets when they defeated the Demons by 13 points without Joe Daniher who was a late out.
The finals heartbreak continued for the Dees when 12 months later Blake Acres bobbed up to kick the match winner, handing them another Semi-Final loss to finish 2023.
In the same year Port Adelaide also bowed out in straight sets when GWS travelled to the Adelaide Oval and came away with a 23-point victory on the back of a five-goal third quarter.
Last year, GWS led Sydney by 28 points in the Qualifying Final and were up by 44 points in the Semi-Final against Brisbane. The Giants went on to lose both matches.
It brings us to 2025 with Adelaide and Brisbane hoping to avoid the same fate.
Of the 13 teams that have lost in straight sets, six of them have finished fourth on the ladder, five of them have finished third and just two second.
While many are quick to point at that the pre-finals bye has reduced the advantage of a top four side, it must be noted that the competition is more even in the last decade.
If the Crows lose to the Hawks, they’ll become the first minor premier to not play in a Preliminary Final.
Hawthorn would also become just the second eighth-placed side to make a Preliminary Final after North Melbourne in 2015.
Sam Mitchell’s men would’ve learnt a lot of lessons from last year’s Semi-Final loss to the Power while many of Adelaide’s players will be playing in just their second final.
The Crows beat the Hawks by just 14 points back in Round 21 at the Adelaide Oval but will still be without superstar Izak Rankine who was the difference on the night with three goals.
While they might have gone out in straight sets twice under Chris Fagan, the Lions have plenty of finals experience compared to their fellow Queenslanders the Suns.
Brisbane were disappointing against the Cats on Friday night and lost to the Suns by 66 points back in Round 20.
Their task got even tougher when they heard on Saturday morning that Lachie Neale is out for the season, and they won’t get Eric Hipwood back for the remainder of the finals either.
Gold Coast, however, haven’t won at the Gabba since 2018 and will face a tough task backing up Saturday night’s stirring victory over the Dockers in Perth.
The last decade suggests at least one side goes out in straight sets each year, but Adelaide and Brisbane should start as favourites and have no reason why they can’t reach a Preliminary Final...
...except for two sides with great momentum after big Elimination Finals wins.
