The biggest Brownlow upsets of the past decade

Karl Kaldawi  •  August 20th, 2025 3:51 pm
The biggest Brownlow upsets of the past decade
The Brownlow Medal is football’s highest individual honour, but it’s also one of the great betting events every year. The Betfair Exchange captures that drama better than anywhere else, with odds fluctuating in real-time based on everything that’s happening on and off the field.
To put it into context, Nick Daicos has been rock-solid favourite all year, never touching double figures and matched as short as $1.55 only two weeks ago. He’s drifted to $3 before firming back to $2.50 but still remains the frontrunner. Behind him, there are some potential outsiders with fascinating price histories.
Jordan Dawson was matched at $400 and is now into $5.40.Noah Anderson traded as high as $110, firming to $7.60.Matt Rowell hit $100, now $9.60.Bailey Smith was $140 earlier in the year, then $40 last week, and is now into $9.40.Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera reached $1000 at one stage, now into $21.
The market is telling us Daicos is the man to beat, but you can’t rule out an upset and with that in mind, here are the five biggest Brownlow upsets since 2015, combining their odds stories with the seasons that made them medal winners.
5. Patrick Cripps (2024) – $44 in-seasonCripps became a dual Brownlow medallist last year with a record-breaking 45 votes, the most ever. He had the medal wrapped up by Round 21, holding off Nick Daicos (38 votes) in a historic count. He averaged 28.8 disposals, 15 contested possessions, and was named All-Australian for the fourth time. From a betting perspective, he started the year a $28 outsider and drifted to $44 mid-season before storming home. Nearly $300,000 was traded on him throughout the season on Betfair.
4. Dustin Martin (2017) – $48 pre-round 12017 was Richmond’s drought-breaking premiership year and one of the great individual seasons of all time from Dusty. He polled a then-record 36 votes, averaged 29 disposals and 1.2 goals a game, and added a Norm Smith Medal to his resume. But on Betfair, he started that season as a $48 outsider before Round 1, a remarkable price in hindsight. He shortened all year as the Tigers surged, with more than $360,000 traded on him across the season.
3. Ollie Wines (2021) – $190 pre-round 1Port Adelaide’s first-ever Brownlow medallist produced a career-best year in 2021. Wines equalled Martin’s record of 36 votes, polling in 16 games and storming home with best-on-ground performances in 11 of the last 12 rounds. He edged Marcus Bontempelli in a thrilling finish and polled more than 30 disposals in 16 games across the season. On Betfair, he began as a $190 outsider before Round 1, with punters slow to warm to him until late in the year. A total of $156,000 was traded on him on Betfair.
2. Lachie Neale (2023) – $500 in-seasonNeale joined the list of dual medallists in 2023, winning his second Brownlow with 31 votes. He sealed the medal with three votes in the final round, edging Marcus Bontempelli (29) and holding off Nick Daicos (28). It capped a season where he averaged 27.4 disposals and 8 clearances a game as Brisbane surged into a Grand Final. Despite his credentials, Neale became somewhat the forgotten man as he drifted to $500 during the season, after starting at $15 pre-Round 1.
1. Patrick Cripps (2022) – $500 in-seasonCripps’ first Brownlow Medal in 2022 was the most dramatic of the lot. He polled 29 votes to edge Neale (28) and Touk Miller (27) in a thrilling finish. But his path was shrouded in controversy: in Round 21 he was suspended for rough conduct on Callum Ah Chee, which would have made him ineligible and denied him the final rounds where he polled decisive votes. The suspension saw his Betfair price blow out to $500, with sure he was going to be suspended. Carlton appealed the decision, won, and Cripps went on to storm home to the medal. He started the year at $70 and firmed mid-season before that blowout, with $100,000 matched on him in total. It remains one of the all-time Brownlow betting rollercoasters.
Some years the Brownlow market was spot on, Dangerfield in 2016 (started $15, 35 votes) and Fyfe in 2015 (started $11.50) both delivered as expected. Others saw only minor drifts, like Fyfe in 2019 (drifted to $24 in season), Neale in 2020 ($19.50) and Mitchell in 2018 ($23) before going on to win.
The Brownlow Medal always has deserved winners, but the Betfair Exchange shows how wild the betting ride can be. With prices shifting round by round, it captures the drama of form swings, injuries and late surges better than anywhere else, giving punters a great place to back, lay and trade in an entertaining market.

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